I was so tempted to skip the blog today and just let everyone enjoy this great July day, but the weather goes on, and when it's like this in the middle of summer you know it's going to change. After all, if it were like this all the time, we'd be San Diego (actually this morning reminded me a bit of summer in Colorado).
But, of course, weather forecasters depend on change, so as always we are looking to the future. Not surprisingly, it looks more humid, warmer, and wetter. We just have to figure out how warm, how humid, how wet, and importantly, when on all counts.
We broke a record low in Columbus with our low of 63º just before 7:00 this morning, right around sunrise. It is the first record low we've set in July since 2009 (we tied one this July 17), when we amazingly strung together 4 such records in a row from Jul 19 to the 22nd, including a 61º on July 21. Tonight, we should be able to reach the 60's again, and with a record of 67º for the 31st we have a chance to tie or break another.
On Thursday, the clouds start moving back in and the dew points will rise as Gulf humidity make its inevitable comeback. This will lead to warmer morning lows, probably back up to 70 by Friday. Daytime highs won't be a lot warmer, as clouds and increasing shower activity should keep highs below 90 for much of the next week, albeit with a whole lot more humidity than what we have today.
And then there's the rain. An upper level disturbance combined with Monday's cold front - now stalled near the Gulf coast - will create a situation favorable for daily shower development and some ordinary summer thunderstorms. The upper trough that first delivered our cool spell is likely to leave a "piece" lying around in a position that could keep some rain chance in our forecast all the way into next week. It's a setup quite similar to what we saw about two weeks ago.
That's not a bad thing; Columbus hasn't seen measurable rain since last Tuesday (July 22), and we're getting into August which tends to be drier than a normal July. Our rainfall is in good shape for the year, but we don't want to get into a dry spell like we had last year, when from mid-August through mid-November we got less than 2½ inches of rain in that 3-month period.
NOAA 6-10 Day temperature and precipitation outlooks: cool and wet for us?
Bottom line: Just be glad we've had this little break in our typically hot, humid summer (and it's our third cold front this month!), because the pattern can flip pretty quickly.
Kurt Schmitz, Senior Meteorologist