We've had a pretty good stretch of April weather these last few days. We were able to dry out after a very wet week and weekend storms, which actually helped freshen the air a bit by taking away some of the dust and pollen. Tuesday and Wednesday were pretty close to being perfect weather with low humidity, cool mornings, and mild afternoons.
However, a complex situation is unfolding for the weekend and beyond, involving an upper level disturbance coming out of the Rockies across the midsection of the country, and its associated surface cyclone (see forecast map for Saturday). This storm system is likely to produce severe storms and tornadoes today and Friday from the southern Plains eastward to the Mississippi River. While that's happening, we'll be dealing with a meandering frontal boundary that should keep us mild and dry - albeit with a few more clouds and extra humidity - through Friday.
Saturday could be an issue as the surface low travels eastward and brings the warm sector up and through Alabama and Georgia. Scattered to numerous showers and storms look like almost a sure bet for Saturday and could arrive as early as Friday night. The severe threat will be there (see graphic) but the experts at SPC are outlining a very wide area as a severe risk because of model uncertainty. Later updates from SPC (coming Friday morning) may be able to narrow down this threat a bit for Saturday.
My early take on this is that a complex of storms is likely to move across Alabama into our area by Saturday afternoon with a damaging wind threat, then move out by Saturday night. Sunday and Monday are likely to be fairly warm and probably dry, though a thunderstorm or two will remain a limited possibility.
Then we'll have another system coming in by next Tuesday, stronger and further south compared to Saturday's. If today's models are correct, we can probably count severe storms out for Tuesday and Wednesday. But if they wind up being off a bit, the atmosphere could line up more favorably for stronger activity on Tuesday. Our later forecasts over the weekend will reflect any change in thinking on that system.
First though, we have to deal with Saturday, as the usual flurry of spring activities will be going on throughout the Southeast. Be sure to check back with the First Alert weather team on the prospects for a stormy day, as we're still two days away and a complicated situation should become somewhat clearer by Friday.