Rarely is weather dull in the South in the month of April, but this year is providing us with even more diversity than usual. We've had cold weather, warm weather, and a nice distribution of rainfall over the first half of the month without a lot of severe weather. This does tend to keep forecasters on their toes!
This Saturday is the second one in a row to deliver terrific weather to Georgia and Alabama. Moderately cool temperatures and low dew points add up to weather that's just begging us to get outside and enjoy it! It's especially nice now that pine pollen is all but done flying around.
Challenges arise for Sunday, however. We have an upper level wave showing up over northwestern Mexico this morning, forecast to start moving this way from the southwest. With Gulf moisture flowing in from the south at low levels, this disturbance will help generate upward motion and ultimately some rain. The rain is likely to begin near coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama and spread up toward our area during the day Sunday.
Rainfall forecast for Sunday, April 14
Timing of the system, since it isn't developed yet, is still a bit uncertain. Right now it looks like rain could begin here Sunday afternoon and continue into the night before heading out by Monday morning. We could see a few thunderstorms with this system, although anything severe should be confined well to our south.
This system won't have a cold front associated with it, so we can expect temperatures to rise significantly beginning Monday; lows will be much milder and highs will make the 80s until the next system arrives.
That next change looks to be in the Thursday-Friday time frame, and will be part of a very energetic storm system featuring a deep surface low in the Midwest. Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri could be in line for tornadoes and other severe storms Tuesday and Wednesday, but the front is likely to weaken a great deal before making it this far east which should keep any severe weather to a minimum by the time it gets here.
That front could be followed by a sharp shot of cool air by the end of the week - how cool remains to be seen. As this coming week will likely demonstrate, it's never a dull moment when it comes to the ups and downs of southern weather in April.